No. 1 seed: Providence
Why they might win: The 2009-10 Friars have indubitably undergone the fieriest baptism of any team in the league, if not the nation. They played an implausible 18 out of 34 regular season contests against nationally-ranked adversaries, going 7-7-4 in that scenario. And while her stats will not let her repeat the ITECH goaltending championship, sophomore backbone Genevieve Lacasse has consumed more minutes, dealt with more shots, and made more saves than any of her peers. She, more than any individual, can make good of a hard-earned bye week before the semifinals.
Why they might not: The third period is still the only block of the game where PC has aggregated a negative scoring differential (minus-2). Although a pristine 12-0-4 when leading after 40 minutes, some of those ties could have been wins for the Friars, who are a more toe-curling 3-10-5 when trailing or knotted at the second intermission. Translation: they need to learn how to shield a brittle lead in case they can’t beef it up with insurance.
No. 2 seed: New Hampshire
Why they might win: For all of the dents they have endured, the Wildcats are still in a good position. Still tops in the league in offense, averaging less than two goals-against, and proficient on both sides of the special teams’ spectrum. Like not-so-old times, they are the lone WHEA team that does not necessarily need to rely on the pennant to attain a bid to the national tournament, thus there ought to be less pressure on their bench. And while three other tournament participants remain unbeaten when leading after the second period, UNH has the distinction of not having lost when scoring first or when leading after 20 minutes.
Why they might not: Head coach Brian McCloskey sensed it long ago when his pupils relinquished their seven-year-old unbeaten home record in league play. And it is now indeed evident that UNH is not as deep as it once was. Over their last six games, only four skaters have pitched two or more goals while nine regulars have been utterly scoreless. And a whopping 10 Wildcats still have a mere single digit in the point column. Not to mention, there’s that old trite-but-true notion of a target on their back.
No. 3 seed: Boston University
Why they might win: Seniors Melissa Anderson and Melissa Haber have both perked up at the right time. Anderson, leaned on all the more with the loss of slick sophomore Jenelle Kohanchuk, has posted seven goals and 10 points in the seven games since Kohanchuk’s season was declared over. In net, Haber and backup Alissa Fromkin have authorized two opposing goals or fewer in each of their last six outings, a patent improvement from the first half of the season. Accordingly, the Terriers had a not-so-shabby February, going 4-0-3 and putting momentum on their side.
Why they might not: Although the defense and especially the penalty kill –successful in 24 of its last 25 tours of duty- have both improved, senior Sarah Appleton is the lone BU blueliner with more than two years of college experience. Three others are sophomores, two are freshmen. Experience isn’t everything, to be sure, and like everybody else, the Terriers have played plenty of virtual playoff games already. Nevertheless, the blue line babies might involuntarily wince when the time comes for single elimination.
No. 4 seed: Northeastern
Why they might win: You can’t go wrong with the likes of Florence Schelling and Leah Sulyma, who this year have done nothing but prove why bygone coach Laura Schuler wanted them as a tandem in the crease. And for all of the puckslinging pups they have on their offense, four of the Huskies’ top five producers are juniors or seniors. If incentive translates to achievement, then look for seniors Lindsey Berman and Annie Hogan to come out sniffing in search of a clutch performance to cement their legacy.
Why they might not: It’s quite simple. If Northeastern doesn’t score, then everything Schelling and/or Sulyma does will go to waste. The Huskies may have authorized two opposing goals or fewer in each of their last six games, but they have likewise scored two or fewer every night in that same time frame. To ensure a memorable postseason, they would be advised to create a little more separation on the board.
No. 5 seed: Connecticut
Why they might win: It is always a good sign when every last player on your roster has at least an even plus/minus rating. Right now, two of the Huskies’ regular skaters are even while the other 16 are in the black, including two-way rookie Casey Knadjek, who despite a modest 2-4-6 scoring log has a team best plus-15 rating. She owes part of that to a packet of chemically reactive scorers and goaltender Alexandra Garcia, who has the best numbers of any masked lady not wearing a Northeastern sweater.
Why they might not: Aside from Boston College, UConn is the least disciplined team in the playoff bracket with a median of 11.1 penalty minutes per game. That could be a problem as early as the quarterfinals, when the Huskies confront a Northeastern team that is averaging only 8.5 PIM per game. Plus, too many reliable scorers, particularly rookies Kelly Horan and Elisabeth Stathopulous, have stalled in the stretch drive. Whether or not they thaw back out could be an X-factor as to how far Connecticut goes.
No. 6 seed: Boston College
Why they might win: Corinne Boyles and Kiera Kingston alike have been outstanding substitutes for Molly Schaus in the net. And as the Eagles just proved in their penultimate regular season game, a 2-1 road win over New Hampshire, they are capable of pulling a shocker provided the goalies do their job and the offense –especially if it involves someone other than Allie Thunstrom- grinds out enough.
Why they might not: With the postseason comes a spike in intensity on both sides of the center circle, and teams with fuller rosters and a broader array of experience are much better adapted to that. BC, however, is largely lacking in experience and has but 16 skaters to work with. Don’t even bother trying to draw inspiration from last year’s UNH Wildcats. Regardless of how far they go, the Eagles will be on the road for every playoff game and they haven’t had an Olympic-sized sheet to hone their stamina with anyway.
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