No. 1-seeded Wisconsin
Why they might win: The Badgers boast each of the nation’s top three scorers who are still vying for a title: Meghan Duggan (38-45-83), Hilary Knight (47-31-78) and Brianna Decker (33-44-77). And while they have played it a little rough of late, their penalty kill has been a pristine 16-for-16 since the calendar morphed to March.
Wisconsin’s only jutting bleak spot this postseason was its slow start to the WCHA title game against Minnesota. The Badgers trailed, 2-0, after 20 minutes and 3-0 until Brianna Decker hit the board at 14:34 of the second period.
But they clearly had more in their tanks that night, as evidenced by a combined 26-19lead in the shooting gallery through 40 minutes, at which point they trailed, 4-2. They proceeded to chalk up an 18-9 shot differential in the third period, wherein they deleted that two-goal deficit, and then a 12-2 shooting romp in overtime, in which the dozenth stab went in off Kelly Nash’s stick for the victory.
Why they might not: Unlike Boston University’s Kerrin Sperry, freshman goaltender Alex Rigsby has not yet wilted for lack of do-or-die experience at the college level. In the previous two weekends –with the WCHA pennant and then a passport to Erie on the line- she has already outdueled Olympic veterans Noora Raty and Kim Martin.
That having been said, she could still run out of steam when the time comes to work against BC’s Molly Schaus, who donned the Star-Spangled Sweater in Vancouver last winter and has toiled through a Frozen Four OT epic as a freshman.
And lately, only the Eagles –who have already pelted three world-class opposing goalies with 124 shots in three postseason games- can compare their ammo output to that of the Badgers, who have 130 SOG in their last three outings.
No. 2-seeded Cornell
Why they might win: With both the No. 1 and No. 2 stoppers in terms of goals-against average –Amanda Mazzotta has allowed an average of 1.09, Lauren Slebodnick 1.15- the Big Red have the firmest foundation for a successful postseason. Mazzotta is also tops in the way of save percentage with a .949 success rate and she has already had the experience of backstopping last year’s Cinderella run that culminated in a triple-overtime championship setback.
But Cornell’s spookiest aspect is its accelerating offense, which romped rival Dartmouth for the second time this season in last weekend’s quarterfinal, 7-1. Of the four Erie-bound teams, they have had the best accuracy, scoring 14 goals on a mere 85 shots on net these last three games. That translates to nearly 16.5 percent of their registered bids finding a home in the cage.
In addition, four of those recent goals have come over a spread of 14 power plays. And over the last six games, the Big Red have answered at least one 5-on-4 invitation while killing 26 of their last 29 penalties.
Why they might not: Consistently stingy as their defense might be, allotting the opposition only 18.8 shots on goal per game, the Big Red have not stepped beyond ECAC boundaries since they blanked Mercyhurst, 3-0, on Jan. 18. Other than that night, when Slebodnick repelled 24 shots for the shutout, they have not had much of a nonconference test.
Facing the strike force of Boston University, and then perhaps the Boston College or Wisconsin, will mean asking much more of the blueliners and backstop than what they have been called to neutralize for the better part of the last three-plus months.
By virtue of seniority, Mazzotta is more likely to get the nod this weekend, and her heaviest workload this season has been a 28-shot, 24-save, 4-3 loss to the Lakers Nov. 2.
No. 3-seeded Boston University
Why they might win: BU’s startling Hockey East semifinal loss to Northeastern may have been a beguiling blessing on two fronts: it was a learning experience that offered an extra day away from game activity in preparation for the national quarterfinals. That extra day played an indubitable part in preparing radiant rookie Marie-Philip Poulin, still healing an early February hand ailment, to score her first goal in six weeks in a 4-2 quarterfinal win over Mercyhurst. Likewise, freshman stopper Kerrin Sperry had more time to soak in what she learned from losing to Florence Schelling, and then put it behind her. When she did, she turned in two solid periods when the Lakers were pelting her the most, sustaining a 1-1 draw after 20 minutes and keeping Meghan Agosta and Co. from ever usurping the lead in the third.
Why they might not: Although a few of their frostbitten scorers showed foolproof signs of thawing out against Mercyhurst, the Terriers’ power play has still been amiss, going a cumulative 0-for-7 in two postseason games.
And for Sperry in particular, the growing pains may be far from over. To secure this year’s title, she will first have to not only get the better of one of the nation’s top two goaltenders in Mazzotta or Slebodnick, but simultaneously curtail the nation’s second-most fruitful offensive brigade. After that, if the Terriers are still standing, she will need to turn around in two days and either outduel her elder crossroad rival Schaus or hold off the nation’s top offense from Wisconsin.
A goalie of her caliber and background could probably handle that, but more likely later than now.
No. 4-seeded Boston College
Why they might win: Perhaps other than Cornell, BC is the only team in this Frozen Four field that can claim it has an established otherworldly scorer and stopper at its disposal. And as they enter their final weekend of collegiate play, Kelli Stack and Molly Schaus can claim they have done most everything except grip an NCAA championship trophy. Incentive and heart are often overrated, but not necessarily when they are driving a machine like the one those two are piloting.
This postseason, the Eagles have had a chance to prove their proficiency on both sides of the puck. The offense wore down two middle-class Hockey East programs and their world-class goaltender to win the pennant, and then Schaus chalked up two 14-save periods to help an initial 4-0 lead morph into a 4-1 quarterfinal triumph over Minnesota.
The tests on both fronts will indubitably intensify –first with Wisconsin’s superior strike force and then perhaps with Cornell’s peerless goaltending. But the buildup has been nice and steady for Katie King’s pupils.
Why they might not: The top two lines and starting defensive pair in Blake Bolden and Katelyn Kurth have been gratifyingly productive of late. But beyond that, the bottom six forwards –who have combined for merely 11 shots on goal this month- and the other four blueliners have been wholly barren. Failure to cultivate some sort of confidence in those unlikely heroes could turn problematic in the event the opponents successfully curb Stack and Co., leaving the Eagles’ offense in need of an insurance policy.
In addition, while BC’s discipline showed statistical improvement in the quarterfinal, three of their four total infractions were committed after they were finishing issuing that four-goal first period blizzard. They cannot necessarily bank on burying the opponents so rapidly again and therefore will have to be diligent about staying out of the box.
On the flip side, BC has converted only one out of its 12 postseason power plays. As the stakes rise and the opponents toughen, capitalizing on the opponent’s fouls makes an exponentially greater difference between retaining and conceding momentum.
Al Daniel is the Hockey East correspondent to Beyond The Dashers
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