Friday, February 5, 2010

Hockey East analysis: What if? What then?

With no further nonconference action ahead in the regular season –minus, of course, next Tuesday’s Beanpot consolation and championship tilts- it is now safe to proclaim that at least one or two items are, or are on the cusp of, “taking shape” in the Hockey East pennant race.

This Saturday and Sunday will feature a combined five meaningful contests between WHEA cohabitants. By weekend’s end, Connecticut and New Hampshire will have caught up with the rest of the gang in terms of cumulative league games played. That is everyone will have played 17 league contests and will, in turn, have an equal distribution of four remaining games in the two weekends that follow.

But we still don’t know much at this rate –other than the fact that Northeastern, Providence, and Connecticut are already guaranteed some sort of postseason activity, that even the basement-laden Vermont Catamounts still have a little life left, and that neither Vermont nor Maine will be hosting the final two rounds of the conference tournament.

And simply put, there is still plenty of time and gridlock left for turbulence within the Hockey East leaderboard. With that in mind, we offer the following protracted list of scenarios pertaining to this particular weekend:

If Boston College beats Connecticut on Saturday, then the loser of the Maine-Vermont game will be ruled out of playoff contention. And the winners will still be literally one misfortune away from an early spring of their own.

If Connecticut wins both of its games versus BC and New Hampshire, then it will either tie Northeastern for first place or have the throne all to itself next week. Additionally, if Connecticut can abolish the Eagles in regulation and then claim two points from the Wildcats, the Eagles will no longer be able to catch UConn in the standings.

If Providence beats Northeastern, then it will potentially have a claim to first place –pending UConn’s results- and will indubitably gain critical traction in the national rankings. Conversely, if the Friars lose on Saturday, then they will likely slip out of every Top 10 when the polls are revised next week.

If Northeastern wins and BC loses, then the Eagles will no longer be capable of catching the Hub Huskies. In that event, NU will, at the very worst, be able to finish fifth in the league standings, which would be their best highest placement since 2003-04. (I’m not trying to be cynical, of course. It is fairly safe to assume that the Huskies will finish even higher than that.)

If New Hampshire sweeps its two games versus Boston University and UConn, and if (and only if) Providence beats Northeastern in a shootout, then there will be a three-way tie for first between the Wildcats, Huskies, and Friars.

Of course, if it were to require the Wildcats a shootout to surpass UConn, and if Heather Linstad’s pupils can take care of Boston College, then we could even see a four-way knot at the top when the ice chips settle on Sunday.

If Northeastern loses to Providence in regulation and if Connecticut and New Hampshire pick up exactly one win and one shootout loss apiece, then the first-place Hub Huskies will suddenly find themselves in fourth place.

If New Hampshire can pick up at least one of four possible points this weekend, or if Maine simply fails to collect a full two-point package against Vermont, then the Wildcats will be the fourth team to clinch a Hockey East playoff spot.

If Boston University beats UNH, and if Vermont beats Maine, then the Terriers will be safely cemented into the playoff picture. Also note that regardless of other results, first place will still be mathematically possible for the Terriers at the start of next week. (Then again, some of the teams they are chasing will still be playing each other in the coming weeks, so it is virtually out of the question for Brian Durocher’s pupils.)

If New Hampshire gains all four possible points and gives nothing away, and if Connecticut comes up empty in its two games, then BC and BU will be tied for fifth place and within three points of the fourth-place Huskies.

Finally, if you are not somehow emotionally stimulated by any of this, then you are not a sports fan.

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