For Providence College fans, the crown they call first place in Hockey East is not nearly as heavy as it is potentially deceiving.
Sure, they are in as good a position as anybody, but arguably more than anybody, the Friars need to leave no pucks unturned as they conclude the regular season at Vermont this Friday and Saturday.
Pending the results of six out-of-town scores on Saturday and Sunday, this weekend may have to be all-or-nothing for the Friars if they expect to have a reasonably smooth (and long) drive through the postseason.
If they, on the one hand, lay down the law on the Catamounts –who now have nothing but dignity on the line after missing the playoffs yet again- then PC will have the upper hand even if there is still a knot with the likes of Connecticut and/or New Hampshire for first place.
But if they so much as spill one point in the shootout, then –to a fairly toe-curling degree- the gravity will be immediately switched off. Heather Linstad’s high-flying pupils would simply have to take advantage of the suddenly spluttering Northeastern and take four points out of their series, and the Hockey East tournament will be in Storrs, Conn., for the second time in three years.
That is unless, of course, UNH can meet its expectations and muzzle a spent BC team. The Wildcats have the upper hand on UConn by virtue of prevailing in the season series, so if Providence trips and UNH triumphs, then those three startling Friar victories from that season series will mean diddlysquat in terms of keeping the tourney out of Lake Whittemore.
If PC can only whittle half (or less) of its potential allotment of points this weekend, and if there is a malfunction on the Huskies or Wildcats front, then the door is still technically open to Boston University and Northeastern. The Terriers should especially be on watch, seeing as they are the only team thus far to have seized more points from the Friars than vice versa in their three-game season series.
Regardless, as uniquely rewarding as it may be to cement a quarterfinal bye along with the right to provide all of the WHEA’s semifinal and final hospitality, the Friars’ real now-or-never prize is a stable position on the national landscape. Right now, their fellow crown-splitters in the league realm are the only two Hockey East teams that exhibit sufficient national viability. PC is more in the same pool with NU and BU in the sense that both time and invisible nonconference points are precious.
Last Saturday’s 4-1 road loss to UConn was both the Friars’ first multi-goal defeat since the end of November and the tenth tally-mark to be scratched under their “L” column. They can take that more as a wake-up call than a death knell, though.
Ordinarily, the second a team hits double-digit losses, its at-large viability is as dead as the bird-cage goalie mask. And Providence (13-10-9 overall) did take an unpleasant overnight nosedive as penance for its 0-1-1 showing against the hot Huskies. It saw its name reassigned to the honorable mention slab of both major national polls this week and, more critically, tumbled from No. 9 to a four-way tie for 12th in the PairWise rankings.
Not all is lost, however. After all, who on this coast has had a more grueling schedule than the team that has actually confronted a Top 10 adversary more often (18) than not (14)?
Even the likes of Wisconsin are an iffy 17-12-3 on the year, but only needed a split with Minnesota State last weekend to up itself from the No. 10 to No. 8 slot in the eyes of USCHO. If the selections took place today, the battered Badgers would likely be deemed fit to face almighty Mercyhurst in a rematch of last year’s NCAA championship bout.
To that point, logic says that if one can spill that much that quickly in this turbulent year of nationwide parity, one can regain just as much just as quickly. So if the Friars can, at the very least, grab two regulation Ws from the Catamounts and proceed to at least reach the conference title game, that ought to be enough to at least put them within tasting distance of a coveted NCAA passport.
And not unlike in the conference standings, there are plenty of national contenders either ahead or in that knot for No. 12 who can do PC a favor with a simple hiccup or two between now and Championship Week. For instance, if Connecticut could dock the Friars as far as they did, then they certainly could victimize Northeastern (tied for No. 9 with Quinnipiac and Cornell for No. 9 on the PairWise leaderboard) the same way.
But then, of course, a UConn sweep of the Hub Huskies would be paradoxically helpful and harmful if the Friars do not extract a four-point package out of Vermont. And that notion can only bring things back to the end of last month, when the Catamounts caught Providence hibernating at Schneider Arena and, through a 2-1 upshot, brought its seven-game winning streak and 10-game unbeaten run to a swift halt.
Imagine where everything would be standing had that night of January 29 been a tad different? If nothing else, PC would be sitting on a comparatively luxurious two-point, first-place cushion with nobody cramming in to share the stakes.
There’s a classic lesson learned, although Sunday’s final realignment of the standings will show if that lesson can/will be applied in a timely fashion.
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